The Human Insecurity Index: how vulnerable, human Life?
A Work of the All lives Institute
This paper describes a first attempt to design a Human Insecurity Index Algorithm for cohorts of humans who, unfavoured, may live
with insecurity, their end never far away. Their coming under attack is often unpredictable, given their circumstances. On the
website, a Human Insecurity Index Number (the HIIN or Algorithm Output) is computed for a number of cohorts. It shows the lethal
advantage attackers have had at close quarters. In such arenas, HIINs have limited differences.
Reports of attacks and defences, and of what led up to these, are studied. Those attacked are termed Vulnerable Human Cohorts
(or VHCs). Those who carry out attacks are State and parastatal Controllers (or CNTRLRs) - including their armies.
State-tolerated bodies (or CNTRLR*s) may include militias and industrial and commercial interests.
Contents
[I] Algorithm Strategy takes first from Psychology
[II] What the Algorithm is designed to achieve
[III] Algorithm: Effective Might Inputs
Likert Scales -> Effective Might Inputs -> Human Insecurity Index Number
[IV] Algorithm Input Definitions
CNTRLR/CNTRLR*s Measures of Effective Might
CNTRLR & CNTRLR*s -Impunity increases Effective Might
VHC measures of Effective Might
[V] Input Scales and Relationships
[VI] Procedures for particular Cases
Computing for Attacks: CNTRLRs, CNTRLR*s & VHCs
[VII] The Human Insecurity Index Number (HIIN)
Factors in the deliberate ending of human lives, and in defensive measures taken, are together combined in a multi-disciplinary
manner, to produce the HIINs for those attacked. The Numbers obtained are not random. Patterns observed provide a level of
authentication of the work. Higher HIINs indicate attackers had greater lethal advantage, occasioned eg by troop numbers deployed.
Greater preparation for attack can add to such advantage - which can in turn be reduced when those attacked have prepared to fight
back.
There are no metrics for the analysis of CNTRLR/CNTRLR*attacks or VHC defences. Two theories of psychology help establish a basis
from which to proceed. https://www.fairplanet.org/dossier/eco-crimes-shell-and-the-niger-delta/
Moral, legal, ethical or personal assertions, as to what human life is, are nugatory - when discrimination is excluded. Laws on
defining what is safe human life (meaning it cannot be judicially taken) vary from time to time and from country to country - so
representing the ultimate in discrimination. Here VHCs are simply those life forms which have natural, human DNA. Killings are
considered using an algorithm, a mathematical, non-judgemental application of the Logical Process (ie Induction and Deduction).
Regarding the merits, or otherwise, of what CNTRLRs and CNTRLR*s do, res ipsa loquitur.
The facts have different implications,
for different people, but provide the clarity needed for the open-minded to overrule Cognitive Biases.
Cognitive psychology explores the mental science of motivation. CNTRLRs, CNTRLR*s and people generally, do not make
choices on the basis careful, objective thought. They use different types of mental shortcuts. Information readily available is
often used, factual or not. 'The Availability Heuristic (or Bias)' is a mental shortcut which leads unconsciously to
simple, but by times incorrect, assessments. The mental resources, time or more usually the inclination to investigate issues,
can be lacking. Answers can, too loosely, be appraised as being obviously true.
https://www.verywellmind.com/availability-heuristic-2794824
CNTRLRs/CNTRLR*s may order that lethal advantage be exercised against VHCs, ostensibly for eg legal, religious, areligious or
racial reasons - or for being bed-blockers, neurodegenerates unable to make moral decisions, non-persons, ghost-persons, for
being less-than-human, for not being self-aware (demential) or because of illness, or for a life which was too long or too short,
for being low-sized or being sexually different from those of a majority population - et cetera multa. Overweening, untrue,
self-centred, even contradictory grandiloquence - dressed up for killing - may freely and simultaneously circulate, unquestioned,
at all levels of society, the media, Government, armies, interest groups and the legal and medical professions. Groupthink
can drive harmony and conformity, occluding unaccepted guilt for brazen, irrational, dysfunctional decisions on see-through laws
and attitudes.
Cornell Physicist Richard P. Feynman was forthright: "Smart people (like smart lawyers) can come up with very good
explanations for mistaken points of view."
Psychometrics is concerned with the objective measurement of skills, knowledge, abilities, attitudes etc. Some
psychometric researchers focus on the construction and validation of assessment instruments such as questionnaires, tests and
user judgments. The theories of psychology used here, to underscore an approach to Psychometrics, are as follows below.
1) The Instinct Theory of Motivation
Sigmund Freud suggested that human motivation was driven by i) life instincts - love, affection and social cooperation
and ii) and death instincts - an instinctive, compulsive 'pressure towards death'. When this energy is directed outwards, it is
expressed as aggression and violence.
https://www.verywellmind.com/instinct-theory-of-motivation-2795383
2) Social cognitive Theory (SCT)
Humanity survives by replicating certain actions. Depending on whether reward follows from such actions and their outcomes, or
not, a person may replicate them. Behaviour is also governed by other societal and environmental influences. The theory explains
how psychosocial factors govern actions.
https://www.med.upenn.edu/hbhe4/part3-ch8-key-constructs.shtml
A capacity to achieve goals comes from self-efficacy (an overall belief that goals can be achieved) and underlies a +Ve measure
of motivation. Human instincts and psychosocial factors, ejusdem generis, can combine in bringing about motivations to achieve
goals, including killing and self-defence. 'Demotivation' (in the -Ve) denotes a lack of motivation. These
various psychological forces are reflected in HIINs computed.
Society at large, its CNTRLRs and CNTRLR*s often state (in their own cant) that the killing of particular VHCs constitutes a
'justifiable case'. The human standing of any VHC cannot duly be denigrated (because of the DNA), yet pervasive Cognitive Biases
(mental shortcuts), allow eg 'beliefs' to be held such that, perhaps even after a brief skirmish with Reason, any action is
justified. Situations, where a person is mercifully given palliative care (all pain avoided), are not to be conflated with those
where s/he is wilfully killed.
Cognitive biases (strong, handy, self-affirming views, not formed via induction and deduction) cause pervasive, systematic patterns of deviation from rational thought, greatly influencing how people
address questions - both simple and complex. [Scientific Method, the antidote to discriminatory Cognitive Bias and
Prejudice, if used with due mental discipline (not a practice, even amongst many scientists), can correct skewed judgments.]
Replicable research has been reported, which confirms Bias Distorsion. Indeed. Psychology explains how people will defend ideas,
rational or not, to preserve a valued self-image - even at some cost to themselves.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/thoughts-thinking/201809/12-common-biases-affect-how-we-make-everyday-decisions
In general terms and taking Cognitive Bias into consideration, Motivation is defined as the process which initiates,
guides, and maintains goal-oriented behaviours, ie what causes action.
https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-motivation-2795378
The basic heuristic algorithm set out is designed to show human insecurities, mostly brought about or tolerated by States, with
general popular acquiescence. After an attack, the reported ex-post Effective Might of CNTRLRs, CNTRLR*s and VHCs is the
practical and net result of the related ex-ante Motivations and Demotivations. These Psychological Forces, the Effective Might
Inputs for the Algorithm, carefully considered, bolster the presentation of the case in hand.
https://dictionary.apa.org/additive-effect
A HIIN produced for one VHC can be useful in demonstrating the nature of deadly asymmetric engagement and, in addition,
the dangers to which other VHCs may, in the future, be exposed.
Having regard to Effective Might Inputs
iC+, iiC+, iiiC*+ etc. (as defined in
[V] and [VI] below), the superscript 'x' in iC1-x+ refers
to the innumerable, variegated psychological forces combined to make up the iC+ Input. Thus:
x∑n=1iC+ = iC1+ +
iC2+ + iC3+... + iCx+
All the symbols below, eg, ivC+/iC*-, 4C+,
4C*+, iV+ and iiV- represent different
Inputs,
which are shown in summed up form, as for iC+ above.
In order better to anchor the results of computing an Insecurity Index Number, Unipolar Likert Scales are used in assessing Algorithm Inputs.
A Likert Scale is a psychometric scale often used in surveys. A Unipolar Likert Scale allows a respondent to think of the
presence or absence of a single quality. Typically multiple-choice options, on such a Likert Scale, include 'Strongly Agree',
'Agree', 'No opinion', 'Disagree' and 'Strongly Disagree'. The scales are anchored by 'Strongly Agree' and
'Strongly Disagree'. In this case, numbers derive from a range of Effective Might units (-10 to +10), of uniform importance, as assessed insofar as possible, across the cases investigated.
Numerical input values provide an envisioned presentation of particular attack scenes, from devastated to unscathed.
Patterns noted across different cases allow Algorithm Outputs to be put into groups.
VHC cohorts who, unfavoured by CNTRLRs/CNTRLR*s in some manner, may continually face their end. The different C and V Input
figures are assessed and computed, to give the Algorithm Output, reflecting the fatal Outcome of attack. Where an equation
contains a C*+ Input, there is also a C+ Input, because CNTRLRs influence action directly or indirectly. The lists of Inputs can
be revisited, with experience. They are as follows:
25 Inputs are used: 6 (+Ve) Attack Inputs: iC+ & iiC+ ,
iiiC+, iiiC*+, ivC+, ivC*+
and 2 (-Ve) Attack Inputs iC-/ iC*-;
8 re Impunity: 1C+/1C*+, 2C+/2C*+, 3C+/3C*+, 4C+/4C*+;
and 9 (+Ve) and (-Ve) VHC Inputs : iV+, iiV+, iiiV+,
iV- , iiV-, iiiV-, ivV-, vV-, viV-
Input Values are assessed in the Scale -10 to +10
iC+ (0 ~ +2) These CNTRLR Inputs indicate benefits acquired, from VHC suppression, through low-level attrition.
iiC+ (0 ~ +4) Inputs indicate benefits acquired, with periodic raids, intended forcefully to suppress VHCs - by scattering or killing.
iiiC+ & iiiC*+ (0 ~ +10) Inputs indicate benefits acquired, or to be acquired, from the dispatch of a VHC, by any means, with greater armoury (with the aid of CNTRLR*s).
ivC+ & ivC*+ (0 ~ +1) Inputs indicate benefits acquired from continual abduction and
disappearance of VHC individuals, with/without the aid of CNTRLR*s.
iC- (0 ~ -2) Inputs from indecision and a lack of coordination, a natural inhibition to killing, or the
prospects of a robust response or of fewer rewards.
iC*- (0 ~ -3) Inputs - as for CNTRLRs and/or for separate reasons, eg if State funding falls
behind.
iC- may be variable with CNTRLR*s (iC*-) either present or absent. At the personal level, revulsion at
killing VHCs may become indeterminate. Societal Groupthink and Deindividuation inexorably suppress critical thinking (so
causing, eg, the 1986 NASA Challenger explosion). Groupthink is a psychological force for consensus. Individuals
may so a) set
aside personal beliefs and biases or b) just simply adopt the opinions and biases of the group majority. (Irving L.
Janis used this term in 1972.)
A Flexible Response Mechanism (FRM - likely a combination of mechanisms - again hypothetically summed up), evolved to generate
responses to novel situations. One component of this is Consciousness. Consciously principled people, who oppose the
unelaborated decisions and overriding opinions of a group majority, tend to remain quiet. Deindividuation fosters harmony over
disrupting uniformity.
Self-interest may restrain CNTRLRs & CNTRLR*s. They may be influenced by powerful players, who will respond, when they can make
political capital from their efforts. http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2018/geopolitical-powershift/
Before an attack, CNTRLRs & CNTRLR*s will procure Impunity, to add to their Effective Might. Before attacking, procuring
adequate impunity is essential.
1C+ & 1C*+ (0 ~ +2) Impunity Inputs indicated by the carrying out of
covert, planned slaying, not widely known.
2C+ & 2C*+ (0 ~ +3) Inputs indicated by legal and/or societal support,
even disengagement, from mass slaying. The 'International Community' is limited largely to peace-keeping.
3C+ & 3C*+ (0 ~ +5) Inputs which indicate a physical ability to see
off (armed) challenge.
4C+ & 4C*+ (0 ~ +7) Inputs indicated by suppressing and then cutting
off VHC freedoms, thus to gain broad impunity for lethal attacks.
At stake with C+ may be power, money, land, minerals, wood, body parts/tissue, sex slavery or personal comfort somehow obtained.
iV+ (0 ~ +5) An Effective Might Input, where VHCs avoid attack by people in some way different from
themselves. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/9780470672532.wbepp253
iiV+ (0 ~ +2) To gain Effective Might by actively looking for help from supporters.
iiiV+ (0 ~ +4) VHCs increase their Effective Might, when national/international support is offered/given, eg by NGOs.
iV- (0 ~ -2) Effective Might is decreased by asking unsuccessfully for national/international help,
leaving VHCs less able to counter defeat. The 'International Community' can only seldom become meaningfully active.
iiV- (0 ~ -3) VHCs, especially if isolated, may lose Effective Might, being unable either to seek support
or gain access to the law.
iiiV- (0 ~ -10) VHCs, especially if isolated, may lose Effective Might, being unable to access armaments.
ivV- (0 ~ -7) Aggressive laws, without an informed, non-partisan foundation, preclude VHC legal defence.
Court decisions, which favour VHCs have been overridden.
vV- (0 ~ -1) VHCs and individuals are often dehumanised by an unthinking society, through anti-VHC
grooming activities, which can lead to attack with little provocation.
viV- (0 ~ -3) Societies will often build aggressive opinions, using logical fallacies. CNTRLRs follow
populist appraisals of ethical issues.
See https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5091674/
The concept of security or risk is mainly seen as an interrelationship between threat, vulnerability and impact (or
consequence). Thanatophobia is a form of anxiety characterized by a fear of one's own death or the process of dying. It is
commonly referred to as death anxiety. Very different VHCs may have comparable HIINs.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/321939
SCT explains how people gain self-esteem. Society around them, and farther afield, influences their behaviour and beliefs.
Societal moral or ethical standards may fall in times of economic want (personal needs are paramount) or of plenty (instant
satisfaction becomes paramount). Standards also readily follow fashions, coming eg from political leaders and Social Media
Influencers. Legal and/or societal support/disengagement - are decisive factors in clearing the way for killing VHCs.
https://ask.metafilter.com/145178/Is-there-a-mathematical-symbol-that-describes-relationshipsdependencies
Inputs can be related in various ways. Some of these can be described mathematically. Often, a scatter plot of two variables
can help to illustrate the type of relationship between them. There are also statistical tools for testing various relationships,
where the figures are available.
https://sciencing.com/types-relationships-between-two-variables-8338159.html
The CNTRLR, CNTRLR* and VHC Effective Might Inputs listed are not readily quantised for computing. They derive from various
psychological forces which lead to an attack Outcome. Kill Rates, Displacement, Ordnance/Equipment used, all influence Effective
Might Inputs.
The 'Effective Might' of both CNTRLRs, CNTRLR*s and VHCs, in the ranges chosen for the Algorithm Inputs, relates to the scene
before and after an attack at close quarters, and provides the Algorithm Output. Relevant Inputs may be considered, one
with the other, and assessed for effectiveness regarding the Outcome of an attack reported upon. Maximum Inputs of Effective
Might (+Ve or -Ve), for the 25 Inputs used, are given below to show the impacts of these. In all cases, 0 is the minimum value.
The Input values assigned for computation reflect relative disparities in offensive and defensive action.
| CNTRLR/CNTRLR*-Input |
Related VHC Input |
| Input Max Value (Effective Might/Impunity) |
Input Max Value (Effective Might) |
| iiiC+ or iiiC*+ |
= +10 |
iiiV- |
= -10 |
| 1C+ & 1C*+ |
= +2 |
iiV+ |
= +2 |
| 3C+ & 3C*+ |
= +5 |
iV+ |
= +5 |
| 2C+ & 2C*+ |
= +3 |
iiV- |
= -3 |
| iC-=-2 : iC+=+2 |
|
iV- |
= -2 |
| 4C+ & 4C*+ |
= +7 |
ivV- |
= -7 |
| ivC+ & ivC*+ |
= +1 |
vV- |
= -1 |
| iC*- |
= -3 |
ivV- |
= -3 |
| iiC+ |
= +4 |
iiiV+ |
= +4 |
For completion w.r.o. particular cases - chose the relevant Inputs.
1] Attacks on Groups
Effective Might (+Ve):
Set iC+ + iiC+ + 1C- = X
and/or
iiiC+ & iiiC*+ + 1C*- = Y
Effective Might from Impunity procured (+Ve):
Set 1-4C+ & 1-4C*+ = X1
The total Effective Might of CNTRLRs/CNTRLR*s combines the Effective Might of Attack with that from Impunity procured:
X + Y + X1
For computation to be possible, X+Y ≤ X1
Computing for VHCs
VHC Attack Avoidance (+Ve): Effective Might:
Set i-iiiV+ = Y3
VHC Countering Defeat (-Ve): Effective Might
Set i-ivV- = -Y4
Total Effective Might of VHCs combines the Effective Might for avoiding attack with that for avoiding defeat = Y3 - Y4
For computation to be possible and using absolute values, |Y3 (+Ve)| ≤ | Y4 (-Ve)|
Employing Inputs relevant to the case being studied, the total Effective Might of a CNTRLR & CNTRLR* in attacking eg a group is
A = X + Y + X1, which is the sum of the relevant Inputs (+Ve) and (-Ve), for attacking and for gaining Impunity.
Again employing Inputs relevant to the case being studied, the total Effective Might of a VHC similarly
B = Y3 - Y4 ,which is the sum of the relevant Inputs (+Ve) and (-Ve),
for avoiding attacks and countering defeats.
The positive and negative figures, for the Effective Might of CNTRLR & CNTRLR*s and VHCs, give the Human Insecurity Index
Number, as follows:
[A] - [B] = HIIN
3] Attacks on Individuals
Effective Might (+Ve):
Set ivC+(+1) + iC- (-2) = Y1
or
ivC+ & ivC*+ +
iC- + iC*-
= Y2
Effective Might from Impunity procured (+Ve):
Set 1-4C+ & 1-4C*+ = X1
The total Effective Might of CNTRLRs/CNTRLR*s:
X + Y1 or Y2 = C
If Y1 or Y2 ≤ X1, calculate B as in 2], so that: [C] - [B] = HIIN
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